Herd growth has many facets:
How many alpacas do you want?
How many are you planning on breeding every year?
How many will you keep?
How many will you sell?
What is your expected production rate?
What is the ideal number of alpacas for your farm? This could be the maximun number the land will support or the number of females necessary to produce the amount of alpacas you want to sell or the number of fiber boys you need to make product.
I first figured out how many alpacas I could reasonably support on the land. From that number, I worked on the number of females and males that would be ideal for my sales goals. Remember goals are just that, goals, so have a fall back plan if you don't make the sales you were expecting.
Northwest alpacas has a great herd growth calculator. You type in the number of alpacas you have now and it estimates the number you will have in future years.
You can see that the cria add up faster than you think. So have a plan in place to sell as you are growing. This does two things, it puts you in the marketplace and makes you practice marketing and selling. You learn what works and what doesn't before you find yourself in a position of having to make a sale. It also brings in new bloodlines if you buy to replace what you sell. If you don't plan on that, then it puts money in the farm budget.
Now is the time to think about what to do with the boys you will be getting. Will you show them, sell them as fiber boys, or keep a fiber herd? Just something to think about.
I would like a herd of 10 breeding females. If I get 50% boys, then I will need to sell 5 boys a year. I also need to sell 5 females to keep the herd at the ideal size. The females sold could be yearlings, pregnant maidens, and/or the production females. I also have some older females, so am planning on when they will retire to have a replacement in place.
As I am growing to that size, I am selling the females that don't fit my business plan and most of the boys. The number can't be written in stone because while statistics say there will be a 50/50 spilt, I have had years with all girls and ones with all boys. It works out in the long run, but to plan year to year for it is tricky.
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